Women Voters Key to Democratic Gubernatorial Wins in 2025

Governors-elect Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) relied heavily on women voters within various demographic groups for their electoral success in 2025. A majority of women within and across racial communities and age groups backed both Democratic women candidates, while 50% or more of white men and men aged 45 and older backed the Republican candidates in both states, according to The Voter Poll (SSRS). Among white voters, The Voter Poll data also illuminates the growing gap between college-educated women and men in partisan vote choice, with white college-educated women more firmly in the Democratic camp. Finally, the initial polling data shows a large gender gap in both New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial contests that surpasses the magnitude of gender differences in recent governor’s races in each state. 

New Jersey

Based on initial reporting of The Voter Poll (SSRS), New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill (D) received support from 62% of women and 49% of men who voted in the 2025 gubernatorial election, representing a 13-point gender gap. A gender gap in voting refers to a difference between the percentage of women and the percentage of men voting for a given candidate, generally the winning candidate. Among women voters, Sherrill had a 25-point advantage over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. In contrast, Ciattarelli bested Sherrill among men by just one point. 

Neither women nor men are a monolithic voting bloc. Sherrill’s strongest support came from Black women (95%), Latinas (73%), and women aged 18-29 (81%). Her margin of success was smaller among white women (54%) and women aged 65 and older (56%). 

Still, a gender gap exists across all race and age groups included in the poll, with women in each group supporting Sherrill in greater proportions than their male counterparts. The largest gender gaps are those among young voters aged 18-29 (24 points), voters aged 45-64 (16 points), and white voters (13 points). 

Sherrill’s success among white women is notable, as a majority of white women have backed Republican presidential candidates in the past two decades. In 2024, 53% of white women voted for President Donald Trump. The Voter Poll provides further detail on white voters, including breakdowns by gender, race, and education. Those data show that the education gap among white women voters persists in New Jersey’s 2025 election. Majorities of white men (69%) and women (57%) without a college degree backed Republican Jack Ciattarelli, while college-educated white voters were split by gender. While 62% of college-educated white women backed Sherrill, 52% of college-educated white men backed Ciattarelli. 

While exit poll data in New Jersey’s gubernatorial contests has been limited historically, this year’s data shows some significant shifts from 2017. That year, when Democrat Phil Murphy and Republican Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno competed in an open-seat contest, Murphy earned nearly equal shares of support from women (55%) and men (56%) voters. Unlike Sherrill, he did not win majority support among white women (44%) and only barely bested Guadagno (51% to her 49%) among college-educated white women. In 2017, Murphy fared better among both Latina (88%) and Latino (74%) voters than Sherrill did this year, consistent with trends we have seen in the Latino/a/x vote in recent cycles. Black women, in contrast, remain the strongest base of support for Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey. 

Virginia

Based on initial reporting of The Voter Poll (SSRS), Virgina Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger (D) received support from 65% of women and 48% of men who voted in the 2025 gubernatorial election, representing a 17-point gender gap. Among women voters, Spanberger had a 30-point advantage over Republican nominee and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. In contrast, Earle-Sears bested Spanberger among men by three points. 

Neither women nor men are a monolithic voting bloc. As with Governor-elect Sherrill, Spanberger’s strongest support came from Black women (96%), Latinas (78%), and women aged 18-29 (82%). Her margin of success was smaller among white women (54%) and women aged 65 and older (59%). 

Still, a sizable gender gap exists across all race and age groups included in the poll, with women in each group supporting Spanberger in greater proportions than their male counterparts. The largest gender gaps are those among Latino/a/x voters (25 points), young voters aged 18-29 (24 points), and voters aged 30-44 (19 points). 

Spanberger’s margin of victory among white women voters (8 points) was fueled by her support among white women with a college degree; nearly two-thirds (65%) of those voters backed the Democrat while 60% of white women without a college degree backed Earle-Sears. Majorities of white men with (52%) and without (71%) a college degree backed the Republican nominee. 

Compared to exit polls in the previous three gubernatorial elections (2013, 2017, and 2021), Spanberger outperformed all of her Democratic nominee counterparts among women voters. She matched the proportion of support from men for the last Democratic winner, Governor Ralph Northam, in 2017. That year, the gender gap in Northam’s support was 13 points. Unlike Spanberger, Northam did not win majority support among white women (48%). Spanberger also outperformed Northam among Black women, white women with a college degree, and white women without a college degree.