Gender Trends in Election 2025

State legislative elections were held in the New Jersey Assembly and Virginia House of Delegates (both the lower chambers of each state’s legislature) on November 4, 2025. This off-year election gives us a chance to identify gender trends ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. 

1. Were the numbers of women on primary and general election ballots up from previous elections?

The charts below show recent trends in the number of women state legislative candidates and  nominees for each state’s lower chamber by party. They reveal different stories by state and party.

In Virginia, the numbers of major-party women House candidates and general election nominees increased from 2023 to 2025 and marked a high over the last decade. The numbers of women candidates and nominees in 2025 were greater than in 2023 for both Democrats and Republicans, though Democratic women consistently outnumber Republican women in both the primary and general elections. 

In New Jersey, the number of major-party women Assembly candidates increased from 2023 to 2025 and matched the high of the last decade. The rise in women’s candidacies was entirely among Democrats, while the number of Republican women candidates dropped from the previous election to this year’s contest. At the general election stage, however, both Democratic and Republican saw a drop in nominees in 2025 compared to 2023. Like in Virginia, the majority of women Assembly candidates and nominees are (and have historically been) Democrats, but the party gap among women is smaller in New Jersey. 

2. Did women represent a greater share of the nominee pool in 2025 than in previous elections?

Women were a larger proportion of Virginia’s House nominees this year than in any cycle between 2017 and 2025, but women were a smaller proportion of nominees for New Jersey Assembly in 2025 than they were in 2023. Women’s representation increased among Virginia’s Democratic and Republican nominees since the last election, while women’s representation as New Jersey Assembly nominees dropped in both parties.

Notably, women have been the majority of Democratic nominees in each Virginia House election since 2019, while 2021 was the only cycle since 2017 where New Jersey’s Democratic women nominees outnumbered their male counterparts.  

3. What gains – if any – did women make in state legislative representation in 2025?

Women made notable gains in the Virginia House of Delegates but the number of women in the New Jersey Assembly will drop as a result of the 2025 election. 

There will be a net gain of eight (+23.5%) women in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2025 to 2026. This represents the second largest gain since election 2017, when women’s representation increased by 11 (+64.7%). The net gain among Democratic women delegates from 2025 to 2026 (+10) matches the gain from 2017 to 2018. In contrast, the number of Republican women delegates will drop by two from 2025 to 2026 while they increased by one as a result of election 2017. 

There will be a net loss of four (-12.9%) women in the New Jersey Assembly from 2025 to 2026. This represents the largest drop in the past five Assembly elections. While the number of both Democratic and Republican assemblywomen will go down from 2025 to 2026, the percentage drop among Republican women (-50%) is larger than that among Democratic women (-4%). 

4. How did women fare in comparison to men, across and within parties?

Women were critical to Democratic success in Virginia’s House of Delegates elections in 2025. Women were responsible for flipping 10 of the 13 (76.9%) House seats that will go from Republican in 2025 to Democrat in 2026. Those gains contribute to the 13-member expansion of the Democratic majority in the Virginia House in 2026, exemplifying a power-building role for Democratic women that has been evident in Virginia in recent elections. 

The success of these women is evident in the distinctly high win rate for Virginia’s Democratic women House challengers in 2025. In November, 34.6% of Democratic women challenging Republican incumbents were successful, more than double the win rate of Democratic men challengers (15.8%). While many more Republican men (9) than Republican women (3) incumbents were defeated in 2025, the already-low number of Republican women incumbent nominees explains the gender disparity in incumbent win rates among Republicans. 

In New Jersey’s 2025 Assembly general elections, women’s win rates largely matched men’s rates of success across candidate types (incumbents, challengers, and open seat candidates) and parties. One exception was the loss of three Republican women incumbents, compared to two Republican men, in an election where only six Republican women incumbents were on the ballot (compared to 22 Republican men). 

Women were two of five (40%) general election nominees who flipped New Jersey Assembly seats in 2025. All flips resulting from the 2025 election are from Republican to Democrat, yielding an expansion of the Democratic majority by five Assembly seats from 2025 to 2026 (52D-28R in 2025 to 57D-23R in 2026). 

5. What do results mean for the racial diversity among women state legislators?

Seven of the 11 (63.6%) non-incumbent women elected to the Virginia House of Delegates in election 2025 represent historically marginalized racial/ethnic communities; four Black women, two Latinas, and one Asian American woman will join the Virginia legislature. This includes one woman delegate-elect who identifies as both Latina and white. As a result of the 2025 election, the number of Asian American, Black, and Latina women in the Virginia House of Delegates will increase. In 2026, 61.9% of women delegates will represent historically marginalized racial/ethnic communities (that proportion is 61.8%  at the end of 2025). 

In contrast, the number of New Jersey assemblywomen will drop in nearly all racial/ethnic groups from 2025 to 2026; the number of Asian American assemblywomen (2) will remain the same. All three non-incumbent women winners of New Jersey Assembly seats are white. Still, in 2026 nearly half (44.4%) of assemblywomen will represent historically marginalized racial/ethnic communities (that proportion is 48.4% at the end of 2025). 

6. How far are we from reaching gender parity in these state legislatures?

Today, women hold 33.5% of all state legislative seats nationwide. Women’s state legislative representation currently ranges from 11.9% (West Virginia) to 61.9% (Nevada). As a result of the 2025 elections, women will hold 30% of state legislative seats in New Jersey, down from 33.3% on Election Day 2025, and 40% of state legislative seats in Virginia, up from 35% on Election Day 2025. 

While women will have to wait for legislature-wide parity in New Jersey and Virginia, women will continue to outnumber men among Democrats in Virginia. In contrast, women will remain just 16.4% of Republican officeholders in Virginia’s state legislature (House + Senate). In New Jersey’s state legislature, women will hold 37.8% of Democratic and 13.2% of Republican seats. New Jersey assemblywomen in both parties will see slight drops in their in-party representation as a result of the 2025 election.

7. What can 2025 results tell us about potential gender trends in the 2026 midterm elections?

Gender and party trends in Virginia’s recent legislative elections, particularly in 2017 and 2019, have foreshadowed similar outcomes in the next year’s state and federal elections, while New Jersey’s state legislative elections have historically been less volatile and more resistant to national trends. 

Similarities in the national political environments in 2017/2018 and 2025/2026 suggest that this could be a fruitful comparison in considering if or how 2025 outcomes might predict trends in 2026. Both paired election years represent the first elections (state and federal) after Republicans won total control at the federal level (president and U.S. Congress). Public concern over and disapproval of the actions by Republican leaders, especially President Donald Trump, was high entering the 2017 and 2018 elections and appears to be similarly high in 2025. Finally, these paired elections both follow the loss of a woman for president – the only two times a woman was a major-party presidential nominee – which can evoke both attention to and lingering frustration over persistent gender disparities in political power. 

Comparing 2017 to 2025 outcomes in Virginia’s House of Delegates election shows that similar environments yielded similar results for women. Similar to 2025, women were responsible for flipping 11 of 15 (73.3%) House seats from Republican to Democrat in 2017 and significantly narrowing a Republican House majority. One year later, in 2018, women won 21 of the 39 (53.8%) U.S. House seats that flipped from Republican to Democrat. As a result, Democrats took back the House majority from Republicans. Women also won 4 of the 7 (57.1%) gubernatorial elections that flipped those state executive offices from Republican to Democrat.

In both 2017 and 2025, Virginia’s Democratic women challengers fared particularly well and better than their male counterparts. One-third of Democratic women challengers for Virginia House seats in 2017 were successful, compared to 14.3% of Democratic men who challenged Republican incumbents. In 2018, 15 of the 21 Democratic women who flipped U.S. House seats defeated Republican incumbents. 

There are many factors that will determine the gender and party trends we see for women candidates in 2026. And while there are environmental similarities to 2018, the politics of 2026 are also distinct from eight years prior. New congressional maps will shape political opportunities by party, heightened perceptions of risk for elected officials can disparately impact women, and concerns over polarization and gridlock might dissuade those who are motivated most by results to seek elective offices. 

CAWP has already begun tracking and analyzing women’s candidacies as part of our 2026 Election Watch. As more states’ filing deadlines pass, we will be better situated to determine if Virginia’s state legislative elections in 2025 are a harbinger for what’s to come for women in the 2026 midterms. Stay tuned.