Election Analysis

What will the 2026 Election mean for women’s representation in the U.S. Senate?

March 5, 2026

There are 35 U.S. Senate elections in 2026, including 33 regularly-scheduled and two special election contests. While we begin the cycle with a net deficit of women senators due to departures, there are possible pick-ups that could yield stasis or even a slight increase in women’s representation in 2027. If non-incumbent women are unsuccessful in their Senate bids, however, the number of women in the U.S. Senate could drop as a result of the 2026 election.

Of the 26 (16D, 10R) women currently serving in the U.S. Senate, 8 (2D, 6R) are eligible for re-election this year. Four (2D, 2R) of those women have decided not to run for re-election: Joni Ernst (R-IA), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Tina Smith (D-MN). The other 4 (4R) incumbent women senators are running for another term, and all but one are currently favored to win. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) will run for re-election in an election currently rated as a “Toss Up” by Cook Political Report. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), and Ashley Moody (R-FL) are running in contests that Cook currently rates as “Solid Republican.”

In addition, 2 (1D, 1R) incumbent women senators who are not up for re-election this year are running for governor in 2026. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) will run for their states’ top executive office while retaining their U.S. Senate seats. This path from Congress to governor is not new. To date, 8 (5D, 3R) women have served in Congress before becoming governor: Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Mary Fallin (R-OK), Ella Grasso (D-CT), Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM), Kathy Hochul (D-NY), Kristi Noem (R-SD), Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), and Abigail Spanberger (D-VA). While Blackburn and Klobuchar do not have to give up their Senate seats in order to wage gubernatorial campaigns, electoral victory will mean that they contribute to the losses of incumbent women senators that will need to be offset by non-incumbent wins in order to sustain women’s Senate representation.

What are the prospects for electing new women senators in 2026?

At present, the most promising prospects for non-incumbent women’s success are in five states with open-seat Senate contests.

In Illinois, U.S. Representative Robin Kelly (D) and Lieutenant Governor Julianna Stratton (D) are among the top three Democratic contenders in all recent polls ahead of the March 17 primary election. If either is successful in securing the Democratic nomination, they would be strongly favored to win the general election. Both women would also contribute to the number of Black women to serve in the U.S. Senate; 2 (2D) Black women serve currently and 5 (5D) have served to date.
In Michigan, state Senator Mallory McMorrow (D) and U.S. Representative Haley Stevens (D) have been the top two Democratic contenders in recent polls, with nearly five months left before the August 4 primary election. Michigan’s general election for the U.S. Senate is currently rated as a “Toss Up” by Cook Political Report.
In Minnesota, U.S. Representative Angie Craig (D) and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan (D) are in a competitive contest for the Democratic nomination. Flanagan has been leading in recent polls and earned the endorsement of departing U.S. Senator Tina Smith (D). Craig has also earned many prominent endorsements and appears to have greater cash on hand. Whoever wins the August 11 primary will compete in a general election contest that Cook Political Report currently rates as “Likely Democrat.” If Flanagan is successful, she would be the first Native American woman to serve in the U.S. Senate.
In Iowa, U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (R) is strongly favored in the Republican primary, earning the endorsement of President Donald Trump and departing U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (R). If successful in the June 2 primary, Hinson will be favored to win the November election that is currently rated as “Likely Republican” by Cook Political Report.
In Wyoming, U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman (R) is currently the only Republican seeking the nomination for U.S. Senate in 2026. She has been endorsed by President Donald Trump and departing U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R), as well as Wyoming’s other senator, John Barrasso (R). Wyoming’s Senate contest is rated as “Solid Republican” by Cook Political Report.

Non-incumbent women are also running competitively in contests to challenge incumbents in at least three states.

In Alaska, former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola (D) will run in the state’s top-four primary election on August 18, which includes candidates from all political parties. Recent polls position her neck-and-neck with incumbent U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan (R), and Cook Political Report currently rates the contest as “Lean Republican.” If successful, Peltola will be the first Alaska Native woman to serve in the U.S. Senate.
In Louisiana, U.S. Representative Julia Letlow (R) is challenging incumbent U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy (R) in what appears to be a competitive three-way Republican primary election on May 16. Letlow has been endorsed by President Donald Trump and Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry (R). The Republican primary winner will be strongly favored to win the general election.
In Maine, Governor Janet Mills (D), who is term-limited this year, is seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R) in a general election contest currently rated as a “Toss Up” by Cook Political Report. Mills’ primary competitor is Graham Platner, who has been leading in recent polls. However, Mills has the backing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). The Democratic primary will be held on June 9.

Paths to the U.S. Senate

These forecasts demonstrate the value of current or former officeholding on women’s prospects in U.S. Senate contests. In total, 7 (4D, 3R) current women U.S. Representatives are running for the U.S. Senate. U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) was unsuccessful in her bid for the Democratic Senate nomination on March 3, while the other 6 (3D, 3R) women have yet to compete in primary elections. Those who are unsuccessful will depart Congress in 2027. In addition, 2 (1D, 1R) current lieutenant governors – Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) and Julianna Stratton (D-IL) – are running for the U.S. Senate in lieu of running for re-election to their current offices. To date, three women lieutenant governors went on to be U.S. senators: Sheila Frahm (R-KS), Mazie Hirono (D-HI), and Tina Smith (D-MN). Finally, if Governor Janet Mills (D-ME) is successful in her bid for the U.S. Senate, she would be the third woman to serve in Congress after being governor. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) both took that path before her.

Milestones to Watch in U.S. Senate Elections

It is still early in the 2026 cycle. More prospective women winners can emerge and the competitiveness of any contests may change as the cycle moves forward. But this early assessment shows how departures of incumbent women senators will create challenges to see any notable net gain in women’s Senate representation in 2027. Even if the numbers of women senators do not increase, there are other possible markers of success for women in these U.S. Senate contests. Specifically, multiple women running for the U.S. Senate in 2026 have the potential to make history. If successful:

Mary Peltola (D-AK) and Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) would be the first Native American or Alaska Native women in the U.S. Senate from any state.
Mary Peltola (D-AK) would be the first Democratic woman to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate.
Janet Mills (D-ME) would be the first Democratic woman to represent Maine in the U.S. Senate.
Julia Letlow (R-LA) would be the first Republican woman to represent Louisiana in the U.S. Senate.

As the 2026 cycle continues, CAWP will track how women fare in U.S. Senate elections as part of Election Watch 2026.