Election Analysis

Post-Primary Analysis: Women in 2026 Congressional Elections

September 28, 2026

With just one state (Louisiana) left to select U.S. House nominees through an Election Day jungle primary, we can provide a clearer picture of women’s representation as congressional candidates and nominees, as well as their general election prospects and – as a result – the potential for representational change in the 120th Congress.

Summary of Findings

Outlooks for Success

U.S. Congress: Women’s congressional (House + Senate) representation is currently at a record high (152). Forecasts for both chambers leave the door open to reaching a new high, matching the current level, or falling below this count.
U.S. Senate: The number of women senators is unlikely to increase as a result of the 2026 election, but any increase will mark a new high for women’s representation in the U.S. Senate, as the number of women currently serving (27) is a record high.
U.S. House: Net gain, loss, or stasis all remain possible outcomes for women’s U.S. House representation. While non-incumbent women are poised to make critical pick-ups in 2026 House contests, the number of non-incumbent women winners is unlikely to surpass the record high (36, set in 2018).

Candidates

A record number of women ran for the U.S. House in 2026.
The number of women candidates for U.S. Senate is up from 2024 to 2026 but falls short of the record high.
While Democratic women are the majority of all women candidates or both U.S. House and U.S. Senate in 2026, the rise in U.S. House candidates was greater for Democratic than Republican women while the rise in U.S. Senate candidates was greater for Republican than Democratic women.
Women continue to be significantly underrepresented as a percentage of all U.S. House and U.S. Senate candidates election 2026.
Republican women are a significantly smaller percentage of their party’s U.S. House candidates than are Democratic women, while both Democratic and Republican women are less than one-third of U.S. Senate candidates in their respective parties this year.
Republican women are a larger share of their party’s House candidates in 2026 than in 2024 while Democratic women’s shares of their party’s candidates are not up from the last election. Women’s share of Republican Senate candidacies is greater in 2026 than any cycle in the past eight years (when CAWP began collecting this data), while Democratic women’s representation among their party’s Senate candidates is down from 2024.
Democratic women candidates won U.S. House and Senate primaries at the highest rate of any gender by party subgroup in election 2026, including winning open-seat nominations at a higher rate than any other group. This was also true in election 2024.

Nominees

The number of women U.S. House nominees is up from 2024 but falls short of the record high.
The number of women Senate nominees is down slightly from 2024.
Women continue to be significantly underrepresented as a percentage of all U.S. House and U.S. Senate nominees in election 2026.
Republican women are a significantly smaller percentage of their party’s U.S. House nominees than are Democratic women, while both Democratic and Republican women are less than one-third of U.S. Senate nominees in their respective parties this year.
Republican women are a larger share of their party’s House and Senate nominees in 2026 than in 2024 while Democratic women’s shares of their party’s nominees are not up from the last election.

Racial/Ethnic Diversity

A record number of Latinas are candidates and nominees for the U.S. House in 2026. Women in no other racial/ethnic group reached new highs as candidates or nominees in this year’s election.
Based on available data, the number of Native American/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian women nominees for U.S. Senate is an historic high, and the number of Black and Latina Senate nominees match existing records.
The first Native woman is likely to be elected to the U.S. Senate in election 2026, and the number of Black women in the U.S. Senate is likely to reach three for the first time in U.S. history.

U.S. HOUSE

Information on U.S. House candidates, nominees, and outlooks is subject to change before and after Election Day due to Louisiana’s jungle primary (held on Election Day), the continued uncertainty over Missouri’s congressional map, and late changes to general election ballots.

A record number of women ran for the U.S. House in 2026, and the number of women House nominees is up from 2024. While the number of women candidates and nominees increased from 2024 to 2026 in both parties, only Democrats reached new records at both stages of U.S. House elections.

In 2026, 590 (402D, 188R) women are major-party candidates for the U.S. House, marking a 26.3% increase from the 467 women who ran for U.S. House in 2024. This number is also seven more than the previous record for women House candidates (583) set in both 2020 and 2022.

The counts for both Democratic and Republican women House candidates are greater than they were in the 2024 election, but only Democratic women reached a record number of U.S. House candidates this year. The number of Republican women House candidates increased by 13.3% from 2024 to 2026 but is still far short of the previous record (261, set in 2022).

In 2026, 271 (198D, 73R) women are general election nominees for the U.S. House, marking a 4.6% increase from 2024 but falling short of the record high of 298 women nominees for the U.S. House set in 2020. There are more Democratic and Republican women nominees in 2026 than in 2024, but the number of women nominees falls short of record highs in both major parties.

When broken down by race/ethnicity, the numbers of Asian American/Pacific Islander, Black, Middle Eastern/North African (MENA), Native, and white women U.S. House nominees each fall short of record highs. In contrast, a record number (86) of Latinas are U.S. House candidates and nominees in 2026.

Women continue to be significantly underrepresented as a percentage of all U.S. House candidates and nominees in election 2026, and Republican women are a significantly smaller percentage of their party’s candidates and nominees than are Democratic women. However, Republican women are a larger share of their party’s House candidates and nominees in 2026 than in 2024 while Democratic women’s shares of their party’s candidates and nominees are not up from the last election.

Despite being more than 50% of the U.S. population, women are 27.1% of major-party U.S. House candidates, a share smaller than in both 2020 and 2022 and nearly equal to 2024. This underrepresentation is especially stark among Republicans, where women are just 19.1% of House candidates. Democratic women are 33.6% of their party’s House candidates in 2026, a decrease from their share (37%) in 2024. Women’s share of Republican House candidacies is greater in 2026 than 2024 but is smaller than their share in both 2020 and 2022.

Women are 31.8% of general election nominees for the U.S. House in 2026. Women near parity (45.5%) with men among Democratic House nominees, very similar to their representation two years ago (45.8%). In contrast, women are just 17.6% of Republican House nominees, a slightly larger share than in 2024 (16.3%) but a smaller share than in both 2020 and 2022.

Women are a larger share of Democratic nominees than they are of all Democratic candidates because they have had more success than their male counterparts in primary contests. More specifically, while 49.9% of Democratic women candidates won their primary contests, just 30.4% of Democratic men candidates did the same. In contrast, Republican men out-performed Republican women in 2026 primary contests; 39.1% of Republican women and 44.2% of Republican men primary candidates were successful.

Among candidates for open U.S. House seats, Democratic women’s win rate again outpaced Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men, while Republican women won open-seat primary contests at the lowest rate of all groups. However, Democrat women’s 2026 win rate in open-seat House primaries is down, and Republican women’s win rate in 2026 open-seat House primaries is up from 2024.

The outlook for women U.S. House nominees is mixed. Current forecasts suggest a near wash between known incumbent departures and strongly favored pick-ups, with women’s U.S. House representation in 2027 – and how it compares to 2026 – dependent on how the most competitive contests for women incumbents and non-incumbents break. Net gain, loss, or stasis all remain possible outcomes for Democratic and Republican women’s U.S. House representation from 2024 to 2025.

In 2026, 17 (12D, 5R) incumbent women are departing the U.S. House due to retirement, primary defeat, or running for another office. This means that maintaining the current level of women’s House representation (125) will require wins for at least the same number of non-incumbent women nominees. The record high for women serving in the U.S. House is 127, last set between November 12, 2024 and January 2, 2025.

Among the 271 (198D, 73R) women House nominees in 2026:

96 (77D, 19R) are incumbents strongly favored to win re-election;
12 (6D, 6R) are vulnerable incumbents (5 of these incumbents are being challenged by women);1
23 (20D, 3R) are non-incumbents in competitive contests;
15 (10D, 5R) are open-seat nominees in favored contests; and
125 (85D, 40R) are non-incumbent nominees in contests where their opponents are strongly favored.

Based on current Cook Political Report ratings, women are:

10 of 27 (37%) of the most likely Democratic and 5 of 44 (11.4%) of the most likely Republican non-incumbent nominee pickups in U.S. House contests. Women are 45.5% of all Democratic and 19.9% of all Republican non-incumbent nominees.
6 of 17 (35.3%) of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent nominees. They are 45.6% of all Democratic incumbent nominees.
6 of 24 (25%) most vulnerable Republican incumbents. They are 14.4% of all Republican incumbent nominees.

While non-incumbent women are poised to make critical pick-ups as a result of the 2026 election, the number of non-incumbent women winners is unlikely to surpass the record high (36, set in 2018). That year, a record 35 non-incumbent Democratic women were successful. The record high for non-incumbent Republican winners of U.S. House seats is 19, set in 2020.

There are also implications of these outlooks for racial/ethnic representation among women in the U.S. House in 2027.

Among the 15 (10D, 5R) women nominees in open-seat contests favoring their parties, 4 (4D) are Black, 4 (4D) are Latina, 1 (1D) is Native American, and 8 (3D, 5R) are white. These counts include 1 (1D) woman who identifies as Afro-Latina and 1 (1D) woman who identifies as Latina and Native American.
Among the vulnerable incumbents, 2 (1D, 1R) are Asian American, 4 (1D, 3R) are Latina, and 6 (4D, 2R) are white.
Among the 17 (12D, 5R) departing incumbents, 4 (4D) are Black, 1 (1D) is Latina, 12 (7D, 5R) are white.

The following non-incumbent women nominees have the most potential, based on current contest ratings, to mark milestones in Election 2026.

Carrie Buck (R, NV-01) would be the first Republican woman to serve in congress from Nevada since 1997.
Melat Kiros (D, CO-01) would be the first Black woman to serve in Congress from Colorado.
Denise Powell (D, NE-02) would be the first Latina to serve in Congress from Nebraska.
Claire Valdez (D, NY-07) would be the first Native American woman to serve in Congress from New York.

U.S. SENATE

The number of women candidates and nominees for U.S. Senate falls short of previous highs. While the number of women Senate candidates is up from 2024 to 2026, the number of women Senate nominees is down. Republican women’s Senate candidacies and nominations have increased by 50% or more since 2024 but have not reached new highs. In contrast, the number of Democratic women Senate nominees is the lowest since 2016.

1
There are currently 37 woman v. woman U.S. House contests in 2026. The record for a single cycle is 47, set in 2020.

In 2026, 65 (32D, 33R) women are major-party candidates for the U.S. Senate, marking a 30% increase from 2024. Still, women’s Senate candidacies in 2026 fall below the record high of 70, set in 2022.

The counts for both Democratic and Republican women Senate candidates are above 2024 counts but below current records. The number of Republican women Senate candidates is up by 57.1% from 2024 to 2026 but short of the 38 Republican women who ran for U.S. Senate in 2022. The 32 Democratic women Senate candidates in 2026 evidence a 10.3% increase from 2024 but fall short of the record 37 Democratic women who ran in 2020.

In 2026, 19 (10D, 9R) women are general election nominees for the U.S. Senate, a drop from the 21 women Senate nominees in 2024 and short of the record high of 23 women Senate nominees in 2018.

Democratic women’s 10 Senate nominations in 2026 are down from 2024, when the number matched the record high of 15 nominees first set in 2018. In contrast, the number of Republican women Senate nominees is greater in 2026 than in 2024 and matches the record 9 Republican women Senate nominees first set in 2020.

Based on available data, the number of Native American/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian women nominees for U.S. Senate (3) is an historic high, and the number of Black (4) and Latina (2) Senate nominees match existing records. Among women candidates for U.S. Senate, only white women reached a new high (45).

Women continue to be significantly underrepresented as a percentage of all U.S. Senate candidates and nominees in 2026. Democratic women are a larger share of their party’s candidates and nominees than are Republican women, but their within-party representation is down from 2024 while Republican women are a greater share of their party’s candidates and nominees in 2026 than in 2024. As a result, the party gap among women Senate candidates and nominees is smaller this year than in recent cycles.

Despite being more than 50% of the U.S. population, women are 23.3% of major-party U.S. Senate candidates in 2026, a share equal to 2024. Women are 21.4% of Republican and 25.6% of Democratic Senate candidates. Women’s share of Republican Senate candidacies is greater in 2026 than any cycle in the past eight years (when CAWP began collecting this data). Democratic women’s representation among their party’s Senate candidates is down from 2024 and the lowest of any cycle in the past eight years.

In 2026, women are 26.8% of general election nominees for the U.S. Senate, down from 2024. The drop in Democratic women Senate nominees is especially stark, from 46.9% in 2024 to 28.6% in 2026. In contrast, women are 25% of Republican Senate nominees, up from 17.6% in 2024.

Despite this drop in nominations, Democratic women have the highest primary election win rate among all gender x party subgroups of Senate candidates. More specifically, while 36.7% of Democratic women candidates won their primary contests, just 27.2% of Democratic men candidates did the same. Republican women also outperformed their male counterparts; 27.3% of Republican women and 23.1% of Republican men primary candidates were successful.

Among candidates for open U.S. Senate seats, Democratic women’s win rate again outpaced Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men. Republican women won open-seat primary contests at a rate higher than Republican men.

The number of women senators is unlikely to increase as a result of the 2026 election.

Women currently hold 27 seats in the U.S. Senate, which is the record high. Four (2D, 2R) incumbent women did not run for re-election this year, and 2 (1D, 1R) more incumbent women senators who were not up for re-election in 2026 are favored gubernatorial nominees in Minnesota and Tennessee. If they are successful, at least six non-incumbent women must be elected to replace departing women senators for women’s Senate representation to remain level from 2026 to 2027.

At present, 4 (2D, 2R) women non-incumbents are favored to win in November, and 2 (1D, 1R) more women non-incumbents are in competitive contests. One (1R) incumbent woman senator – Susan Collins (R-ME) – is currently deemed as vulnerable in her bid for re-election. If she holds her seat and all competitive and likely non-incumbent women are successful, the number of women senators would likely stay level from 2026 to 2027. Currently unanticipated victories of non-incumbent women nominees, or defeats of either/both women senators seeking gubernatorial offices, would be necessary to surpass the current number of women senators in the next Congress.

Of the 4 (2D, 2R) non-incumbent women Senate nominees most favored to win in November, 1 (1D) is Black (Julianna Stratton, D-IL), 1 (1D) is Native American (Peggy Flanagan, D-MN), and 2 (2R) are white (Harriet Hageman, R-WY; Julia Letlow, R-LA). Among the women in competitive U.S. Senate contests, 1 (1D) is Alaska Native (Mary Peltola, D-AK) and 1 (1R) is white (Ashley Hinson, R-IA).

If successful, Flanagan and Peltola would be the first Native women to serve in the U.S. Senate. And if Stratton wins, a record 3 (3D) Black women will serve concurrently in the U.S. Senate for the first time in U.S. history.