DATA POINT: Women Incumbents Not Returning to U.S. House Creates Steeper Path for Women's Gains

In a year where a record breaking number of women have filed to run for the U.S. House, there will also be the highest number of women incumbents not returning since CAWP started tracking this data in 2002. This year, 13 (7D, 6R) or 15.7% of the 83 women currently serving in the U.S. House are either retiring or running for other office. The number of women in the House dropped from 84 to 83 last month with the passing of Representative Louise Slaughter (D-NY. The highest proportion of non-returning women incumbents previously was 13.1% in 2016 and before that, 10.2% in 2002. Of the 13 non-returning incumbents, 38.5% are retiring and 61.5% are running for other office.

While a record breaking number of women have filed to run for the U.S. House this year, 15 freshman women will have to be elected to break the record 84 women serving set in 2016. The last time over 15 new women were elected was in 2012 when a total of 19 female newcomers won their House seats. Unsurprisingly, the record for new women elected to the U.S. House was set in the 1992 “Year of the Woman,” when the freshman class consisted of 24 women.

Whether 2018 will qualify as a new “Year of the Woman” remains to be seen.  A surge in women filing to run for office certainly speaks to the increased interest in political participation that has been sparked, in part, by the results of the 2016 election. The next hurdles are success in the primaries and ultimately in the November elections.