Election Analysis

What will the 2026 Election mean for women’s gubernatorial representation?

March 19, 2026

There are 36 gubernatorial contests in 2026. Half (18) of those contests will be for open seats due to term limits or retirements of the incumbent officeholders. Of the record 14 (10D, 4R) women governors currently serving, 6 (4D, 2R) are leaving office this year. With 43% of the current women governors departing office, maintaining or surpassing women’s gubernatorial representation will rely heavily on the success of non-incumbent women gubernatorial candidates.

Of the 14 (10D, 4R) current women governors:

5 (4D, 1R) are term-limited in 2026 – Kay Ivey (R-AL), Laura Kelly (D-KS), Janet Mills (D-ME), Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), and Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM).
1 (1R) is retiring: Kim Reynolds (R-IA).
5 (3D, 2R) are running for re-election in 2026 and are favored to win — Maura Healey (D-MA), Kathy Hochul (D-NY), Tina Kotek (D-OR), Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R-AR), and Kelly Ayotte (R-NH).
1 (1D) is running for re-election in 2026 in a contest currently rated as a “Toss Up” by Cook Political Report — Katie Hobbs (D-AZ).
2 (2D) will not be on the ballot this year — Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and Abigail Spanberger (D-VA).

What are the prospects for electing new women governors in 2026?

At present, the most promising prospects for non-incumbent women’s success are in eight open-seat gubernatorial contests.

In Alaska, Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom (R), Mayor Edna DeVries (R), former state Senator Shelley Hughes (R), and Bernadette Wilson (R) are candidates in a crowded primary that will be held on August 18, 2026. Alaska holds a nonpartisan primary where the top four candidates will advance to a ranked-choice general election. Cook Political Report currently rates this contest as “Solid Republican.”
In California, former U.S. Representative Katie Porter (D), former state Controller Betty Yee (D), Caroline Buhler (D), and Kimberly Kradel (D) are competing in a crowded primary that will be held on June 2, 2026. California holds a nonpartisan primary where the top two candidates will advance to the general election. Cook Political Report currently rates this contest as “Solid Democrat.” While none of these women candidates are leading in the most recent polls, the crowded contest means that there is no clear frontrunner. No woman has ever served as governor in California.
In Maine, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D) and former Speaker of the Maine House Hannah Pingree (D) will compete in a ranked-choice primary election on June 9, 2026. There have been few polls thus far, and it is particularly difficult for polls to predict outcomes of ranked-choice elections. Whoever wins the June primary will compete in a general election contest that Cook Political Report currently rates as “Likely Democrat.”
In Minnesota, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) is currently the favorite candidate to win the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary election. Klobuchar won the DFL straw poll for governor on February 3 with over 70% of votes. If successful in the August primary, Klobuchar will be favored to win the November election that is currently rated as “Solid Democrat” by Cook Political Report. No woman has ever served as governor in Minnesota.
In New Mexico, former U.S. Representative and Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland (D) is leading in polling and endorsements among Democratic candidates competing in the June 2 primary election. If successful in securing the Democratic nomination, Haaland will be favored to win the November election that is currently rated as “Likely Democrat” by Cook Political Report. No Native American woman has ever served as governor in the United States.
In South Carolina, Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette (R) and U.S. Representative Nancy Mace (R) are running in a competitive Republican primary election on June 9 among at least five candidates. If no candidate receives 50% of votes, a runoff will be held on June 23. Both women candidates have led in different Republican primary polls, and Evette has been endorsed by current Governor Henry McMaster (R). Cook Political Report currently rates this contest as “Solid Republican.”
In Tennessee, U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R) is leading all polls to win the Republican nomination in the August 6 primary election. If successful in the August primary, Blackburn will be favored to win the November election that is currently rated as “Solid Republican” by Cook Political Report. No woman has ever served as governor in Tennessee.
In Wyoming, Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder (R) is a candidate in the Republican primary that will be held on August 18. Degenfelder has been endorsed by President Donald Trump. Cook Political Report currently rates this contest as “Solid Republican.”

Non-incumbent women are also running in at least four open-seat gubernatorial contests currently considered toss ups.

In Georgia, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) is leading all polls for the Democratic nomination in the May 19 primary election. No woman has ever served as governor in Georgia and no Black woman has served as governor in the United States.
In Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) is leading all polls for the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary election. Marni Sawicki (D) is also competing in the Democratic primary election.
In Wisconsin, state Representative Francesca Hong (D), Missy Hughes (D), Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez (D), and state Senator Kelda Roys are candidates in a crowded Democratic primary that will be held on August 11. No woman has ever served as governor in Wisconsin.

In addition, Helena Foulkes (D) is waging a competitive campaign against Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee (D) in the Democratic primary. Foulkes lost the Democratic nomination to McKee in 2022 by just 3,300 votes. She bested McKee by more than 15 points in a February poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire. However, 40% of respondents said they were undecided so far in advance of Rhode Island’s September 8 primary election. The winner of the Democratic primary is strongly favored to win the general election.

Paths to the Governor's Office

Three (1D, 2R) current women lieutenant governors are running for governor in 2026: Nancy Dahlstrom (R-AK), Pamela Evette (R-SC), and Sara Rodriguez (D-WI). Of the 98 former women lieutenant governors, 15 (15.3%) have gone on to become governors. Another path to the governor’s office comes through Congress. To date, 8 (5D, 3R) women have become governor after serving in the U.S. Congress. In 2026, 5 (3D, 2R) current or former congresswomen are running for governor: former Representatives Deb Haaland (D-NM) and Katie Porter (D-CA), Representative Nancy Mace (R-SC), and Senators Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). Two (2D) women – Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) – entered Congress after serving as governor. This year, Governor Janet Mills (D-ME) is seeking the same path to the U.S. Senate, competing for the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent Senator Susan Collins (R-ME).

Milestones to Watch in Gubernatorial Elections

It is still early in the 2026 cycle. More prospective women winners can emerge and the competitiveness of any contests may change as the cycle moves forward. Despite the high percentage of women leaving gubernatorial office, sustaining women’s record level of gubernatorial representation is possible due to the number of competitive non-incumbent women candidates. Even if the number of women governors falls, however, there are other possible markers of success for women in these gubernatorial contests. If the women highlighted in this outlook are successful:

The first woman governor would serve in California, Georgia, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. These are five of the 17 states that have never had a woman governor.
Women would succeed current women governors in Maine, Michigan, and New Mexico. In New Mexico, this would be the third consecutive woman governor..
Deb Haaland (D-NM) would be the first Native American woman governor.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D-GA) would be the first Black woman governor.

As the 2026 cycle continues, CAWP will track how women fare in gubernatorial elections as part of Election Watch 2026.