Post-Primary Analysis: Women in 2024 Congressional Elections
UPDATED: November 11, 2024
Earlier this year, I laid out where things stood for women in 2024 congressional elections, pointing to the drop in women U.S. House candidates, the record high of women’s departures from Congress, and the persistent underrepresentation of women as congressional candidates. With just one state (Louisiana) left to select nominees through an Election Day jungle primary, we can provide a clearer picture of women’s representation as congressional candidates and nominees, as well as their general election prospects and – as a result – the potential for representational change in the 119th Congress.
Among the major findings are:
- The numbers of women candidates and nominees for U.S. House and Senate fall short of previous highs and are down from 2022 to 2024. For both chambers, the drop in candidacies is greater among Republican than Democratic women, and the decline in nominees is only among Republican women.
- When broken down by race/ethnicity, the numbers of Asian American/Pacific Islander, Black, Latina, Native, and white women U.S. House and Senate nominees in election 2024 each fall short of record highs.
- Women continue to be significantly underrepresented as a percentage of all U.S. House and Senate candidates and nominees in election 2024, but Republican women are a significantly smaller percentage of their party’s candidates and nominees than are Democratic women. Democratic women are a larger share of their party’s House and Senate nominees in 2024 than 2022, while Republican women are a smaller share of Republican candidates and nominees in 2024 than in 2022.
- Democratic women candidates won U.S. House and Senate primaries at the highest rate of any gender by party subgroup in election 2024, including winning open-seat nominations at a higher rate than any other group.
- The number of women senators is unlikely to increase by more than one as a result of the 2024 election, with a decrease possible based on current forecasts.
- Net gain, loss, or stasis all remain possible outcomes for Democratic and Republican women’s U.S. House representation. While non-incumbent women are poised to make critical pick-ups in 2024 House contests, the number of non-incumbent women winners is highly unlikely to surpass the record high (36, set in 2018).
U.S. HOUSE
The numbers of women candidates and nominees for U.S. House fall short of previous highs and are down from 2022 to 2024. The drop in candidacies is greater among Republican than Democratic women, and the decline in nominees is only among Republican women.
In 2024, 467 (301D, 166R) women are major-party candidates for the U.S. House, marking a 19.9% decline from the record 583 women who ran for U.S. House in both 2020 and 2022. This year’s count more closely mirrors the number of women House candidates in 2018 (476).
The counts for both Democratic and Republican women House candidates are below both 2022 and previous records. The number of Republican women House candidates is down by 36.4% from 2022 – when a record 261 Republican women ran for the House – to 2024. The 301 Democratic women House candidates in 2024 is a 6.5% drop from 2022 and a 15.4% decline from the record 356 Democratic women who ran in 2018 and 2020.
In 2024, 259 (191D, 68R) women are general election nominees for the U.S. House, falling just short of the 260 women House nominees in 2022 and 13.1% down from the record high of 298 women nominees for the U.S. House set in 2020.
While the number of Republican women House nominees is down by 17.1% from 2022 to 2024, Democratic women’s House nominations are up by 7.3% since the last election. However, the number of women nominees falls short of record highs in both major parties.
When broken down by race/ethnicity, the numbers of Black, Latina, Asian American/Pacific Islander, Native, and white women U.S. House nominees each fall short of record highs. The number of Middle Eastern/North African (MENA) women nominees for the U.S. House in 2024 matches the high of five, first set in 2020.
Women continue to be significantly underrepresented as a percentage of all U.S. House candidates and nominees, but Republican women are a significantly smaller percentage of their party’s candidates and nominees than are Democratic women. Democratic women are a larger share of their party’s nominees in 2024 than 2022, while Republican women are a smaller share of Republican candidates and nominees in 2024 than in 2022.
Despite being more than 50% of the U.S. population, women are 26.8% of major-party U.S. House candidates, a share smaller than in both 2020 and 2022. This underrepresentation is especially stark among Republicans, where women are just 17.6% of House candidates. Democratic women are 37.6% of their party’s House candidates in 2024. Democratic women’s share of their party’s House candidates has held nearly level since 2020, while women’s share of Republican House candidacies is smaller in 2024 than in both 2020 and 2022.
Women are 31.2% of general election nominees for the U.S. House in 2024. Women near parity (45.9%) with men among Democratic House nominees and increased their share of Democratic nominees since 2022. In contrast, women are just 16.5% of Republican House nominees, a smaller share than in both 2020 and 2022.
Democratic women candidates won U.S. House primaries at the highest rate of any gender by party subgroup, including winning open-seat nominations at a higher rate than any other group.
Women are a larger share of Democratic nominees than they are of all Democratic candidates because they have had more success than their male counterparts in primary contests. More specifically, while 63.5% of Democratic women candidates won their primary contests, just 45.8% of Democratic men candidates did the same. In contrast, Republican men out-performed Republican women in 2024 primary contests; 40.9% of Republican women and 45.3% of Republican men primary candidates were successful.
Among candidates for open U.S. House seats, Democratic women’s win rate again outpaced Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men, while Republican women won open-seat primary contests at the lowest rate of all groups. Democrat women’s 2024 win rate in open-seat House primaries was up from 2022 but similar to 2020 and 2018. Republican women’s win rate in 2024 open-seat House primaries was lower than any other cycle since 2018.
The outlook for women U.S. House nominees is mixed. Current forecasts suggest a near wash between known incumbent departures and strongly favored pick-ups, with women’s U.S. House representation in 2025 – and how it compares to 2024 – dependent on how the most competitive contests for women incumbents and non-incumbents break. Net gain, loss, or stasis all remain possible outcomes for Democratic and Republican women’s U.S. House representation from 2024 to 2025.
Among the 258 (191D, 67R) women House nominees in 2024:
- 97 (71D, 26R) are incumbents strongly favored to win re-election;
- 14 (10D, 4R) are vulnerable incumbents;
- 14 (10D, 4R) are non-incumbents in competitive contests;
- 16 (14D, 2R) are open-seat nominees in favored contests, though two Democrats are running against each other yielding just 15 (13D, 2R) likely pick-ups in this category; and
- 117 (86D, 31R) are non-incumbent nominees in contests where their opponents are strongly favored.
Based on current Cook Political Report ratings, women are:
- 13 of 23 (56.5%) of the most likely Democratic and 2 of 30 (6.7%) of the most likely Republican non-incumbent nominee pickups in U.S. House contests. Women are 47.6% of all Democratic and 15.6% of all Republican non-incumbent nominees.
- 10 of 19 (52.6%) of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent nominees. They are 43.8% of all Democratic incumbent nominees.
- 4 of 21 (19%) most vulnerable Republican incumbents in states where nominees have already been chosen. They are 16% of all Republican incumbent nominees.
These counts only include candidates seeking a full term in the U.S. House; in Texas’ 18th Congressional District, the nominees competing on November 5th to serve the remainder of former U.S. Representative Sheila Jackson Lee’s term (through January 3, 2025) are different than the nominees running for the full term beginning in 2025. Lee’s daughter, Erica Lee Carter (D), is favored to win the special election but would not serve in the 119th Congress.
While non-incumbent women are poised to make critical pick-ups as a result of the 2024 election, the number of non-incumbent women winners is highly unlikely to surpass the record high (36, set in 2018).
There are also implications of these outlooks for racial/ethnic representation among women in the U.S. House in 2025.
- Among the 16 (14D, 2R) women nominees in open-seat contests favoring their parties, 1 (1D) is Asian American, 1 (1D) is Black, 3 (3D) are Latina, 1 (1D) is MENA, and 10 (8D, 2R) are white.
- Among the vulnerable incumbents, 1 (1R) is Asian American, 2 (2D) are Black, 4 (3D, 1R) are Latina, 1 (1D) is Native, and 6 (4D, 2R) are white.
- Among 15 (12D, 3R) departing incumbents, 4 (4D) are Black, 1 (1D) is Latina, 10 (7D, 3R) are white.
U.S. SENATE
The number of women candidates and nominees for U.S. Senate falls short of previous highs. As in U.S. House contests, the drop in Senate candidacies is greater among Republican than Democratic women, and the decline in nominees is only among Republican women.
In 2024, 50 (29D, 21R) women are major-party candidates for the U.S. Senate, marking a 28.6% decline from the record 70 women who ran for U.S. Senate in 2022. This year’s count more closely mirrors the number of women House candidates in 2018 (53).
The counts for both Democratic and Republican women Senate candidates are below both 2022 and previous records. The number of Republican women Senate candidates is down by 44.7% from 2022 – when a record 38 Republican women ran for the Senate – to 2024. The 29 Democratic women Senate candidates in 2024 is a 9.4% drop from 2022 and a 21.6% decline from the record 37 Democratic women who ran in 2020.
In 2024, 21 (15D, 6R) women are general election nominees for the U.S. Senate in 2024, a slight increase from the 20 women Senate nominees in 2022 but short of the record high of 23 Senate nominees in 2018.
While both Republican and Democratic women’s Senate candidates are down from 2022 to 2024, Democratic women’s Senate nominations in 2024 are up from 2022 and match the record high of 15 nominees first set in 2018. In contrast, the number of Republican women Senate nominees is lower in 2024 than in the three previous election cycles.
When broken down by race/ethnicity, the numbers of Black, Latina, Asian American/Pacific Islander, Native, and white women U.S. Senate nominees each fall short of record highs. There have been no Middle Eastern/North African (MENA) women nominees for the U.S. Senate to date.
Women continue to be significantly underrepresented as a percentage of all U.S. Senate candidates and nominees, but Republican women are a significantly smaller percentage of their party’s candidates and nominees than are Democratic women. Democratic women are a larger share of their party’s nominees in 2024 than 2022, while Republican women are a smaller share of Republican candidates and nominees in 2024 than in 2022.
Despite being more than 50% of the U.S. population, women are 23.4% of major-party U.S. Senate candidates, a share greater than in 2022 and nearly equal to 2020. This underrepresentation is especially stark among Republicans, where women are just 16.8% of Senate candidates. Women’s share of Republican Senate candidacies is lower than 2020 and 2022. In contrast, Democratic women are 33.3% of their party’s Senate candidates in 2024, a greater share than in the three previous cycles.
in 2024, women are 30.9% of general election nominees for the U.S. Senate. Women near parity (46.9%) with men among Democratic Senate nominees and increased their share of Democratic nominees since 2022. In contrast, women are just 17.6% of Republican Senate nominees, a smaller share than in the three previous cycles.
Democratic women candidates won U.S. Senate primaries at the highest rate of any gender by party subgroup, including winning open-seat nominations at a higher rate than any other group.
Women are a larger share of Democratic nominees than they are of all Democratic candidates because they have had more success than their male counterparts in primary contests. More specifically, while 51.7% of Democratic women candidates won their primary contests, just 29.3% of Democratic men candidates did the same. In contrast, Republican women and men performed similarly in 2024 primary contests; 28.6% of Republican women and 26.9% of Republican men primary candidates were successful.
Among candidates for open U.S. Senate seats, Democratic women’s win rate again outpaced Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men, while Republican women won open-seat primary contests at the lowest rate of all groups.
The number of women senators is unlikely to increase by more than one as a result of the 2024 election, with a decrease possible based on current forecasts.
At least three non-incumbent women must be elected to replace departing women senators for women’s Senate representation to remain level from 2024 to 2025. At present, two (2D) women non-incumbents are favored to win in November, and two (1D, 1R) more women non-incumbents are in competitive, open-seat contests. While this could yield a net increase of one woman in the U.S. Senate, that outcome also depends on the success of incumbent women nominees. Among the 9 (7D, 2R) incumbent women senators running for re-election, 2 (2D) are deemed vulnerable in current forecasts.
Both non-incumbent women Senate nominees most favored to win in November are Black women, making it likely that more than one Black woman will serve in the U.S. Senate concurrently — a historic first. Just three (3D) Black women have served in the U.S. Senate to date.
For the latest data on women candidates in Election 2024, see CAWP's Election Watch resources. And for more on gender in the presidential contest, see Presidential Watch 2024.
