Where Things Stand for Women in 2024 Congressional Elections

Earlier this year, I laid out what to watch for women in election 2024, pointing to the drop in women U.S. House candidates, the record high of women’s departures from Congress, and the persistent underrepresentation of women as congressional candidates. Nearly ten weeks later and with filings complete in 36 states, where do things stand? The analysis below provides an updated look at notable trends and key races to watch for women in this year’s congressional contests. 

Among the major findings at this point in the 2024 election cycle are:

• The number of women running for the U.S. House is down, but so is the number of men. Republican candidacies have dropped more than Democratic candidacies from 2022 to 2024, with Republican women seeing the greatest percentage decline in House candidacies. Less electoral opportunity – as measured in the availability of open seats – may account for fewer candidates in 2024 than 2022, but it does not explain partisan disparities in candidate counts. 
• Republican women’s representation among their party’s candidates is down from 2022 to 2024, while women’s share of Democratic House candidacies is about the same in 2024 as it was two years ago. 
• The number of incumbent women members of the U.S. House not running for re-election is at a record high, but they are not departing at significantly higher rates than their male counterparts. Likewise, women’s departures from the U.S. Senate are not outpacing men’s departures in 2024.
• The number of women senators is unlikely to increase by more than one as a result of the 2024 election, with a decrease possible based on current forecasts. 
• Forecasting U.S. House results is harder at this point in the cycle, but already we can identify some non-incumbent women likely to win in November. 

U.S. House

The number of women running for the U.S. House is down, but so is the number of men. Republican candidacies have dropped more than Democratic candidacies from 2022 to 2024, with Republican women seeing the greatest percentage decline in House candidacies.

Filing deadlines for congressional contests have passed in 36 states as of April 26. Combined, these states account for 85% of all U.S. House seats. With the necessary caveat that trends could change with the addition of candidates from the remaining 63 House contests, the current trend for women House candidates is downward from 2022. 

More specifically, comparing 2024 and 2022 counts among only states where filing deadlines have passed, the number of major-party women candidates for the U.S. House in 2024 is down by 21.4% from 2022. The number of men running for the U.S. House is also down by 14.9%, suggesting that the factors depressing candidacy are not entirely distinct to women. 

Partisanship, on the other hand, appears to be more significant in this year’s trends. Across gender, Republican House candidacies in already-filed states are down 22.8% while Democratic candidates are down 8.2% from 2022. And gender differences are starker among Republicans; the number of Republican women House candidates is down by 37.6% from 2022 to 2024, while Republican men’s candidacies are down by 18.7%. The percentage drops in Democratic women’s (7.9%) and men’s (8.3%) House candidacies are nearly equal in states where filing deadlines have already passed. It is important to remember, however, that the number of Republican women candidates is significantly smaller than Republican men year-over-year, such that smaller drops in raw numbers of candidates yield much greater percentage declines. 

There are many possible reasons for the drop in candidacies – across gender and party – from 2022 to 2024. A decline in electoral opportunities is prominent among them. The 2022 elections were contested following decennial redistricting, a process that can create more vacancies and greater competitiveness. A blunt measure of opportunity is the number of open-seat contests – which are likely to attract more candidates – across cycles. There are currently 43 open-seat U.S. House contests across the 36 selected states in this analysis, while there were 55 open-seat House contests in these same states' primaries two years ago. Among these 2024 open seats, 56% favor Republicans based on current Cook Political Report ratings, indicating that the partisan disparities in candidate decline are not attributable to Republicans having fewer open-seat opportunities this year. 

Women continue to be significantly underrepresented in the U.S. House candidate pool, and Republican women’s representation among their party’s candidates is down from 2022 to 2024.

Despite being more than 50% of the U.S. population, women are 26.2% of major-party U.S. House candidates in states where filing deadlines have already passed. This underrepresentation is especially stark among Republicans, where women are just 17.6% of House candidates. 

Women’s representation among all filed major-party candidates is down slightly from 2022 (comparing the same 36 states) but that decline is concentrated among Republicans. Women are virtually the same percent of Democratic House candidates in these states between 2022 (36.2%) and 2024 (36.3%) while Republican women accounted for a greater percentage of House candidates in these states in 2022 (21.7%)  than in 2024 (17.6%). 

The number of incumbent women members of the U.S. House not running for re-election is at a record high, but they are not departing at significantly higher rates than their male counterparts. 

A record high 13 (10D, 3R) congresswomen have announced that they are not running for re-election to their current U.S. House seats. 

Four (4D) of these women opted to run for the U.S. Senate. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) are currently favored to win their party nominations, while Barbara Lee (D-CA) and Katie Porter (D-CA) were both defeated in the California primary. Additionally, U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) is running for governor in 2025.

The majority of women’s departures will come from retirements, with 8 (5D, 3R) women – Anna Eshoo (D-CA), Kay Granger (R-TX), Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH), Debbie Lesko (R-AZ), Kathy Manning (D-NC), Grace Napolitano (D-CA), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), and Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) – already declaring that they will be leaving the U.S. House.

Incumbent congresswomen are not departing their current offices – whether to retire or to run for other offices – at significantly higher rates than their male counterparts. As of May 7, women account for 28.9% of members that are not running for re-election, either due to retirement or bids for other offices; women are 29% of current members of the House. 

Another way to assess gender differences is to consider the percent of all women and men incumbents who are not running for re-election. At present, those percentages nearly match, with 10.3% of incumbent women and 10.5% of incumbent men in the U.S. House departing their current offices. 

A drop in women’s primary candidacies and incumbent women departures do not necessarily signal a decline in women’s U.S. House representation in 2025. 

The rate of decline in women’s House candidacies is not unprecedented from previous cycles. While increasing the pool of candidates can certainly increase the likelihood of greater representation for women, other factors are more integral to the ultimate outcome. Most notably, forecasting women’s representation in the 119th Congress requires attention to women nominees’ presence and prospects in general election contests. 

Nearly 40% of U.S. House nominees have already been selected across eleven states. Women are 28.2% of current House nominees, down slightly from 29.8% in these same states in 2022. Both Democratic and Republican women’s representation is down slightly among all House nominees in already-contested states.

But what are their chances of success in November? Among the 93 (69D, 24R) women House nominees already selected in 2024:

• 38 (31D, 7R) are incumbents strongly favored to win re-election; 
• 4 (3D, 1R) are vulnerable incumbents; 
• 3 (1D, 2R) are challengers in competitive contests;
• 4 (4D) are open-seat nominees in favored contests; and 
• 44 (30D, 14R) are non-incumbent nominees in contests where their opponents are strongly favored. 

Based on current Cook Political Report ratings, women are:

• 4 of 8 (50%) of the most likely Democratic and 0 of 11 (0%) of the most likely Republican pickups in states where nominees have already been chosen.
• 3 of 9 (33.3%) of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in states where nominees have already been chosen. They are 41.4% of all Democratic incumbent nominees in these states. 
• 1 of 6 (16.7%) most vulnerable Republican incumbents in in states where nominees have already been chosen. They are 10.8% of all Republican incumbent nominees in these states.

House Contests to Watch

While it’s too early to map out all likely pick-ups for women in the 2024 election, below are some contests to watch with regard to women’s possible success and the potential to achieve notable milestones as a result of election outcomes. The list below is just a sampling of some contests where non-incumbent women are among those especially well-situated for possible success.

• AZ-03: Former State Senator Raquel Terán (D) and Phoenix Vice Mayor Yassamin Ansari (D) are top contenders for the Democratic nomination in this open-seat contest favoring Democrats. If successful, Terán would be the first Latina to represent Arizona in Congress. Ansari would be the first Middle Eastern/North African (MENA) woman to serve in Arizona’s congressional delegation. To date, all congresswomen from Arizona have been white.
• AZ-06: Kirsten Engel is running uncontested in the Democratic primary to challenge incumbent U.S. Representative Juan Cisconmani in a contest currently rated as a toss up by Cook Political Report. 
• CA-12: Lateefah Simon (D) and Jennifer Tran (D) have advanced to the general election, all but ensuring that a new woman will be elected to this seat.
• CA-29: Assemblywoman Luz Maria Rivas (D) advanced to a general election contest where she is strongly favored.
• DE-At-Large: Current State Treasurer Colleen Davis (D) and State Senator Sarah McBride (D) are among the Democratic candidates seeking to fill the likely Democratic open seat created by U.S. Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester’s (D) likely ascension to the Senate. If successful, McBride would become the first openly trans person to serve in Congress. 
• MD-06: Multiple women, including April McClain-Delaney (D, wife of former U.S. Representative John Delaney) and state Delegate Lesley Lopez (D), are competitive candidates in a crowded Democratic primary whose winner will be strongly favored to win this open seat in November.
• MD-03: Recent polling in this district shows a two-way Democratic primary contest between state Senator Sarah Elfreth (D) and Harry Dunn (D). The Democratic nominee is strongly favored to win this open seat in November.
• MN-03: State Senator Kelly Morrison (D) is one of two Democratic candidates vying to replace U.S. Representative Dean Phillips (D) in this district favoring Democrats.
• MT-02: Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction and former state legislator Elsie Arntzen (R) is seeking the Republican nomination in this open-seat contest that strongly favors Republicans.
• NJ-07: Sue Altman (D) is running uncontested in the Democratic primary to challenge incumbent U.S. Representative Tom Kean Jr. (R) in a contest currently rated as a toss up by Cook Political Report.
• NM-02: Former U.S. Representative Yvette Herrell (R) is the only Republican running to challenge incumbent U.S. Representative Gabe Vasquez (D) in a contest currently rated as a toss up by Cook Political Report. Vasquez defeated Herrell in the 2022 election by less than one percent of the vote. 
• NY-22: Air Force veteran and DeWitt Town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood (D) is leading in fundraising for the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican incumbent U.S. Representative Brandon Smith (R) in November in a contest currently rated as “Lean Democrat” by Cook Political Report.
• NC-01: Laurie Buckhout (R) is the Republican nominee to challenge incumbent U.S. Representative Donald Davis (D) in a contest currently rated as a toss up by Cook Political Report.
• ND-At-Large: Current Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak (R) is one of multiple candidates seeking the Republican nomination in this strongly Republican district. If successful, Fedorchak would be the first Republican woman to represent North Dakota in Congress and the first woman (of any party) to serve in the U.S. House from North Dakota.
• OR-03: Two women candidates – state Representative Maxine Dexter (D) and former County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal (D), the sister of U.S. Representative Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) – are among the top three Democrats vying for their party’s nomination in this open-seat contest that will strongly favor Democrats in November. If successful, Jayapal would be the first Asian American woman to serve in Congress from Oregon. She would also be part of just the second set of sisters to serve concurrently in Congress. U.S. Representatives Linda (D) and Loretta Sánchez (D) served together in the California congressional delegation from 2003 to 2017. 
• OR-05: Two Democratic women – state Representative Janelle Bynum (D) and Jamie McCleod Skinner (D) – are running to challenge incumbent U.S. Representative Lori Chavez-DeRemer in this toss-up contest. Chavez-DeRemer defeated Skinner by just over one point in 2022. If successful, Bynum would be the first Black woman to serve in Congress from Oregon. 
• TX-32: State Representative Julie Johnson (D) is the Democratic nominee in a contest where she is strongly favored to win in November. 
• TX-34: Former U.S. Representative Mayra Flores (R) is the Republican nominee in a contest currently rated as “Lean Democrat” by Cook Political Report. Flores will challenge incumbent U.S. Representative Vicente Gonzalez, Jr. (D), who defeated her by eight points in the 2022 election.
• VA-07: Five (4D, 1R) women are running in this crowded primary to fill an open seat. There is no clear frontrunner in either major-party primary contest and the general election is currently deemed one of the most competitive in this cycle. The women contenders are state delegates Elizabeth Guzmán (D) and Briana Sewell (D), Prince William County supervisors Andrea Bailey (D) and Margaret Franklin (D), and Maria Martin (R). Both Democratic candidate Elizabeth Guzmán (D) and Republican candidate Maria Martin (R) identify as Latina and, if successful, would be the first Latina to represent Virginia in Congress.
• VA-10: Six (4D, 2R) women are running to replace retiring U.S. Representative Jennifer Wexton (D) in this district currently favoring Democrats. Both Democratic candidate Krystle Kaul (D) and Republican candidate Manga Amantamula (R) identify as South Asian and, if successful, would be the first Asian American woman to represent Virginia in Congress.
• WA-06: Current Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz (D) and state Senator Emily Randall (D) are the leading Democratic candidates running in this open-seat contest that strongly favors Democrats. 

U.S. SENATE

Women continue to be significantly underrepresented in the U.S. Senate candidate pool, and Republican women’s representation among their party’s candidates is down from 2022 to 2024.

Women are 23.8% of major-party U.S. Senate candidates in the 23 of 34 U.S. Senate contests whose filing deadlines have already passed. This underrepresentation is especially stark among Republicans, where women are just 17.5% of Senate candidates. 

In 2022, women were 21.7% of all filed U.S. Senate candidates, indicating that 2024 is currently on track to exceed that representation. But, at least at present, that slight increase is due to greater representation for women among Democratic candidates. Republican women are on track to fall short of their representation among Republican Senate candidates in 2022. 

More women are departing the U.S. Senate in 2024 than in recent cycles, but their departures are proportional to share of women senators up for election this year.

Three (2D, 1Ind) women senators – Laphonza Butler (D-CA), Kyrsten Sinema (Ind-AZ), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) – are not running for re-election. None of them have indicated that they are running for another office. No more than two women senators have decided not to run for re-election in any single election cycle since 2012. 

But incumbent women senators are not departing their current offices at rates significantly disproportionate to their male counterparts. Women incumbents hold 35.3% of U.S. Senate seats on the ballot in 2024 and they represent 37.5% of incumbents opting not to run for re-election. 

The number of women senators is unlikely to increase by more than one as a result of the 2024 election, with a decrease possible based on current forecasts. 

The most significant factor determining women’s U.S. Senate representation in 2025 is the likelihood of success of women candidates in both the primary and general contests. At present, at least three non-incumbent women must be elected to replace departing women senators and all forecasts indicate that no more than four non-incumbent women are likely to win both the primary and general election. 

Only 19.1% of U.S. Senate nominees have been selected at this point in the 2024 cycle, and there are 2 (2D) women nominees. However, the smaller number of contests allows us to provide an early outlook for women’s Senate representation, even when so many nominations remain undecided. 

Thirteen (6D, 7R) women Senators are not up for election in 2024 and will continue their current terms in the 119th Congress. Of the 12 (9D, 2R, 1Ind) women Senators who are up for election in 2024, 3 (2D, 1Ind) are retiring and 9 (7D, 2R) are running for re-election. 

Of the 9 (7D, 2R) women senators running for re-election, 7 (5D, 2R) are strongly favored to win re-election. Incumbent women senators Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) are among those incumbents in the most competitive 2024 Senate contests. Both are expected to compete against Republican men in the general election.  

In contrast, women could pick up U.S. Senate seats in up to four states.

• In Arizona, Kari Lake (R) is the frontrunner for Republican nomination in an open-seat contest currently rated as a toss up by Cook Political Report. 
• In Delaware, current U.S. Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) is strongly favored to fill the state’s open U.S. Senate seat in 2025. With the departure of Senator Laphonza Butler (D-CA), the only Black woman currently serving in the U.S. Senate, Rochester’s victory would ensure that at least one Black woman serves in the senate in 2025. 
• In Maryland, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) has earned key endorsements from Democratic leaders and is the top competitor to David Trone, who is leading in polling and campaign funds. The Democratic nominee is favored to win this seat in November. If successful, Alsobrooks would be the first Black woman elected statewide in Maryland. 
• In Michigan, current U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin (D) is leading against her Democratic primary contenders to become the general election nominee in a contest currently rated as “Lean Democrat” by Cook Political Report.

For the latest data on women candidates in Election 2024, see CAWP's Election Watch resources. And for more on gender in the presidential contest, see Presidential Watch 2024.