Notable Wins for Women in ID, NE, OR, and PA May Yield Gains in November

Kelly Dittmar

Gender Watch 2018From March to December 2018, the Barbara Lee Family Foundation (BLFF) and the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) partnered to offer Gender Watch 2018, which tracked, analyzed, and illuminated gender dynamics in the 2018 midterm elections. With the help of expert scholars and practitioners, Gender Watch 2018 furthered public understanding of how gender influences candidate strategy, voter engagement and expectations, media coverage, and electoral outcomes in campaigns. The blog below was written for Gender Watch 2018, as part of our collective effort to raise questions, suggest answers, and complicate popular discussions about gender’s role U.S. elections.

 

Among the notable results for women in Tuesday’s primaries in ID, NE, OR, and PA:

  • Paulette Jordan (D-ID) and incumbent Kate Brown (D-OR) secured nominations or governor. Jordan has the potential to make history this fall as the first woman governor of Idaho, the first Native American governor nationwide, and the first Democratic woman of color governor in the U.S. Jordan is the first Native American woman to win a major party nomination for governor.
  • Of the 23 women who competed for statewide elected executive offices (including governor) in ID, NE, OR, and PA, 8 (34.8%) have already secured nominations. 4 more women are in statewide executive races that are still too close to call.
  • 13 of 29 (44.8%) women candidates for the U.S. House won their primary bids for office on May 15th. 2 more women candidates are in races that are too close to call.
    • 12 of 26 (46.2%) Democratic women and 1 of 3 (33%) Republican women candidates for the U.S. House were successful.
  • Women will be at least 13 of 54 (24.1%) of the major party nominees for the U.S. House from these states this fall, including at least 12 of 28 (42.9%) Democratic House nominees and 1 of 26 (3.8%) Republican nominees.
    • 7 (6D, 1R) women nominees will compete in open seat contests.
    • At least 5 (5D) women nominees will run as challengers to incumbents, with 4 of 5 running in districts that solidly favor their opponents. 1 woman candidate (Kara Eastman, NE-02) is in toss-up race.
      • 2 more Democratic women in races TCTC are vying for nominations in districts favorable to Republicans this fall.
    • There was just 1 incumbent woman running for the U.S. House across all 4 states with primaries on May 15th. Democrat Suzanne Bonamici secured her nominations for re-election in Oregon’s first congressional district, where she is strongly favored to win.
  • Of the 13 women nominees for the U.S. House in ID, NE, OR, and PA, 2 are women of color. Of the 2 women in races too close to call, 1 is a woman of color.
  • Across these 4 states there will be 1 woman v. woman contest for the U.S. House in PA-05, all but ensuring that Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation will no longer be all-male in 2019.
  • Just 2 women competed for U.S. Senate nominations on May 15th. They secured Democratic and Republican nominations for Senate in Nebraska, where incumbent Senator Deb Fischer will be challenged by Jane Raybould this fall. Historically, Democratic women have competed against Republican women for U.S. Senate seats 15 times.

For a full list of women candidates for federal and statewide executive offices nationwide, see CAWP’s Election Watch.

Idaho

While Idaho does not actually elect governor and lieutenant governor as a ticket, the Democratic nominees for both governor and lieutenant governor in Idaho will be women in 2018. Paulette Jordan defeated 2 male opponents to secure the Democratic nomination for governor, and Kristin Collum defeated 1 male opponent to become the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor. The one Republican woman who competed against 6 men for the Republican nomination for governor was unsuccessful. Janice McGeachin is leading in the Republican race for lieutenant governor, but the race is still too close to call.

  • Jordan has the potential to make history this fall as the first woman governor of Idaho, the first Native American governor nationwide, and the first Democratic woman of color governor in the U.S. Jordan has already made history by securing the Democratic nomination; she is the first Native American woman to win a major party nomination for governor.

Including governor and lieutenant governor, women candidates have already secured 5 of 8 (62.5%) major party nominations for statewide executive offices in Idaho, including all 4 Democratic nominations for these offices and at least 1 Republican nomination; 4 Republican women remain in 2 statewide executive races that are too close to call.

  • Incumbent Sherri Ybarra, the only woman currently holding statewide office in Idaho, secured the Republican nomination for re-election. Her general election opponent – Democrat Cindy Wilson – is also a woman.
  • In addition to Wilson, Democrat Jill Humble will challenge a Republican incumbent to become Secretary of State this fall.

Women candidates secured 1 of 4 (25%) major party nominations and 1 of 2 (50%) Democratic nominations for U.S. House seats in Idaho. Democrat Christina McNeil, who is Latina, will compete for the open seat in Idaho’s 1st congressional district this fall. The district is currently rated solidly Republican. One Republican woman House candidate was unsuccessful.

  • As one of 11 states with no women representing it in Congress, there were no women incumbents competing in Idaho’s congressional primaries.

Nebraska

Nebraska’s U.S. Senate election will pit woman against woman this fall. Republican incumbent Deb Fischer secured nomination for re-election; she will face Democratic challenger Jane Raybould.

All women who ran for the U.S. House from Nebraska (2D) this year were successful. They secured 2 of 6 (33.3%) major party nominations for U.S. House seats in Nebraska and are 2 of 3 (66.7%) Democratic nominees. No Republican women competed in U.S. House primaries.

  • Both Democratic women nominees will challenge Republican incumbents, including:
    • Jessica McClure in NE-01, currently rated as solidly Republican
    • Kara Eastman in NE-02, currently rated as a Republican toss-up
  • There were no women incumbents competing in Nebraska’s U.S. House primaries.

Women candidates secured 1 of 9 (11.1%) major party nominations for statewide executive offices in Nebraska, including 1 Democrat (25% of Democratic nominations) and 0 Republicans.

  • Jane Skinner ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination for State Auditor; she will challenge incumbent Republican Charlie Janssen this fall.
  • 3 (2D, 1R) women candidates, including 2 (1D, 1R) women candidates for governor, were unsuccessful.

Oregon

Women candidates secured 2 of 9 (22.2%) major party nominations for U.S. House seats in Oregon. Both are Democrats, representing 2 of 5 (40%) Democratic nominees. 3 (2D, 1R) women House candidates were unsuccessful.

  • Democratic incumbent Suzanne Bonamici will compete for re-election in the 1st congressional district, a district deemed solidly Democratic by Cook Political Report.
  • Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner will challenge an Republican incumbent in Oregon’s solidly Republican 2nd congressional district.

In Oregon’s gubernatorial primaries, incumbent Governor Kate Brown secured the Democratic nomination for re-election, defeating the only other women gubernatorial candidate this year. No women competed for the Republican nomination for governor.

In the only other statewide contest (non-partisan) in Oregon this year, Val Hoyle bested two male opponents to become the state’s next Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor and Industries.

Pennsylvania

As of Wednesday morning, Women candidates secured 8 of 35 (22.9%) major party nominations for U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania, including 1 Republican (5.9% of Republican nominees) and at least 7 Democrats (38.9% of Democratic nominees). 10 (10D) women House candidates were unsuccessful and 2 (2D) are in races that are still too close to call.

  • 6 (5D, 1R) women are nominees for open House seats
    • In the race for the 5th congressional district’s open seat, Republican Pearl Kim will oppose Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon in November, all but ensuring that Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation will no longer be all-male in 2019.
    • In addition, 3 Democratic women nominees for open seats in Pennsylvania are running in districts favorable to Democrats this fall.
      • Madeleine Dean (D, PA-04) (solid Democrat)
      • Chrissy Houlahan (D, PA-06) (likely Democrat)
      • Susan Wild (D, PA-06) (lean Democrat)
    • Bibiana Boerio (D) will compete for the open seat in Pennsylvania’s 14th district, currently rated as likely Republican by Cook Political Report.
  • At least 2 Democratic women nominees will challenge Republican incumbents in districts deemed solidly Republican by Cook Political Report, including:
    • Jessica King (D, PA-11)
    • Susan Boser (D, PA-15)
  • If successful in their races, the 2 (2D) women candidates in races too close to call would face Republican incumbents in districts favorable to Republicans this fall.
  • As one of 11 states with no women representing it in Congress, there were no women incumbents competing in Pennsylvania’s congressional primaries.

There is 1 woman of color among the 8 U.S. House nominees in Pennsylvania (Pearl Kim, R, PA-05), and 1 of 2 women in races too close to call is a minority woman (Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson, D, PA-10). No woman of color has ever been elected to Congress from Pennsylvania.

No women competed for major party nominations for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat. No woman has ever represented Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate.

Women won 0 of 4 major party nominations for the two statewide executive offices on the ballot in Pennsylvania: governor and lieutenant governor. One woman (1R) ran for governor and 5 women (2D, 3R) sought the nomination for lieutenant governor; none were successful.

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Kelly Dittmar

Kelly Dittmar is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Rutgers–Camden and Director of Research and Scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at the Eagleton Institute of Politics. She is the co-author of A Seat at the Table: Congresswomen’s Perspectives on Why Their Representation Matters (Oxford University Press, 2018) (with Kira Sanbonmatsu and Susan J. Carroll) and author of Navigating Gendered Terrain: Stereotypes and Strategy in Political Campaigns (Temple University Press, 2015).

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