Women's Status in 2024 State Level Elections

Earlier this month, I laid out where things stand for women in 2024 congressional elections, showing that the number of women running for the U.S. House is down, Republican candidacies have dropped more than Democratic candidacies from 2022 to 2024, and Republican women’s representation among their party’s U.S. House candidates has declined from 2022 to 2024. But do these trends persist in state-level elections? The analysis below provides a first look at gender and partisan differences and trends in state legislative candidacies at this point in the 2024 election cycle, while also offering an outlook on women’s election 2024 prospects in gubernatorial elections. 

Among the major findings at this point in the 2024 election cycle are:

• The number of major-party state House candidates is down from 2022 to 2024, with drops greatest among men (v. women) and almost entirely concentrated among Republicans (v. Democrats). 
• At the intersection of gender and party, the only group seeing a rise in state House candidacies is Democratic women. State House candidacies are down from 2022 to 2024 among Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men. 
• Women are a larger proportion of all major-party state House candidates in 2024 than 2022, with Democratic women much better represented among their party’s candidates than Republican women. In fact, women are nearly 50% of Democratic state House candidates in 2024. 
• Both the raw number and proportion of women who have filed as major-party candidates for governor are up from 2020 to 2024, and women are likely to increase their gubernatorial representation – at least by one – as a result of the 2024 election, which would yield a new record high. 

State House

The number of major-party state House candidates is down from 2022 to 2024, with drops greatest among men (v. women) and almost entirely concentrated among Republicans (v. Democrats). Democratic women are bucking this trend as the only gender x party group seeing a rise in state House candidacies since 2022. 

As of April 26, filing deadlines had passed in 30 of 42 states holding state House elections. With the necessary caveats that trends could change with the addition of candidates from the remaining 12 states and filed candidates could drop out before primaries happen, Democratic women’s candidacies are up from 2022 while the number of Democratic men, Republican women, and Republican men candidates is down since the last election cycle. 

At this stage in the election, I use two different candidate counts to identify these trends (see source and methodology notes in the charts above). Including the narrowed selection of states where primaries have already occurred ensures accuracy of both candidate lists (candidates made it to primary ballots) and gender codes.

While the specific data points differ across these two counts, the general gender and partisan trends highlighted here are consistent across both data sets. 

• The overall number of state House candidates is down, but this is largely due to Republican decline.
• Republican state House candidacies are down while Democrats are trending level or upward from 2022. 
• Democratic women are the only gender x party group currently seeing a rise in state House candidacies from 2022 to 2024.

These partisan trends evident at the state legislative level are consistent with what we are seeing in U.S. House elections, where the drop in candidacies from 2022 to 2024 is greater among Republicans than Democrats. Democratic women’s rise in state House candidacies differs, however, from the federal level, where the number of women running for U.S. House is down both across and within parties. 

As noted in my analysis of federal trends, the 2022 elections were contested following decennial redistricting, a process that can create more vacancies, greater competitiveness, and thus increased electoral opportunities. This is one among many possible explanations for an overall drop in state House candidates. 

Women are a larger proportion of all major-party state House candidates in 2024 than 2022, with Democratic women much better represented among their party’s candidates than Republican women.

Women are just over one-third of major-party state House candidates in 2024, whether measured by states where filing deadlines have passed or only states where primaries have occurred. By both measures, women’s representation in the state House candidate pool is up from 2022 to 2024. However, partisan disparities persist across cycles. While women are nearly 50% of Democratic state House candidates this year, they are 25% of Republicans running for state Houses. 
 

Governor

Both the raw number and proportion of women who have filed as major-party candidates for governor are up from 2020 to 2024.

There are 11 gubernatorial elections in 2024. Filing deadlines have passed in eight of the 11 states where governors will be elected this year. Limiting the analysis to just those eight states (IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, UT, WA, WV), the total number of women running as major-party gubernatorial candidates is greater in 2024 than in 2020. This may be due, in part, to the higher number of open-seat gubernatorial contests this year. 

Of the eight states included in this analysis, six have open-seat elections due to term limits or retirements; each of those six states had an incumbent running for re-election four years ago. Of all 11 gubernatorial elections in 2024, eight are open-seat contests; in 2022, just two of 11 governors’ races were free of incumbents. 

Women are capitalizing on these opportunities. In 2024 contests where candidate filing deadlines have passed, women are 22.2% of major-party gubernatorial candidates, including 24% of Democrats and 14.6% of Republicans. Both of these percentages are up from 2020, the most comparable year for these gubernatorial contests. 

Women are likely to increase their gubernatorial representation as a result of the 2024 election – at least by one – to reach a new record high. 

All three incumbent governors up for election in 2024 are men who are currently favored to win re-election. None of the 12 (8D, 4R) incumbent women governors are up for re-election in 2024, meaning that they will hold their offices through 2025. But women could also pick up seats in some of the open-seat gubernatorial contests in 2024, with the most promising opportunities at this point in Delaware and New Hampshire.

Gubernatorial Contests to Watch 

Below are some gubernatorial contests to watch with regard to women’s possible success and the potential to achieve notable milestones as a result of election outcomes. 

• Delaware: Current Lieutenant Governor Bethany Hall-Long (D) is in a competitive Democratic primary (to be held September 3) for governor in a contest strongly favoring the Democratic nominee. One woman – Ruth Ann Minner (D) – has previously served as governor of Delaware. Minner previously served as the state’s lieutenant governor.
• Indiana: Jennifer McCormick (D) is the Democratic nominee for governor. She will face Republican nominee and current U.S. Representative Mike Braun (R). This general election contest is currently rated as “Solid Republican” by Cook Political Report. No woman has previously served as governor of Indiana.
• Missouri: State Representative Crystal Quade (D) has led in early 2024 Democratic primary polls for the party’s gubernatorial nomination. If successful, she will likely run against Republican Party favorite and current Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (R). This general election contest is currently rated as “Solid Republican” by Cook Political Report. No woman has previously served as governor of Missouri.
• New Hampshire: Women are three of six major-party candidates who have already declared candidacy for governor of New Hampshire. Former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R), former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), and New Hampshire Executive Councilmember Cinde Washington (D) are among the top contenders, with Ayotte and Craig leading in early polls for their respective party primaries. This contest, currently rated as a toss-up by Cook Political Report, could yield a pick-up for a woman of either party. Three (2D, 1R) women have previously served as governor of New Hampshire, including two (2D) who went on to serve in the U.S. Senate after their tenures as governor. If Ayotte is successful in 2024, she will reverse this trend, following up her time in the U.S. Senate (2011-2017) with an election to the state’s top executive office. 
• North Dakota: Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller (R) is running in a two-way contest for the Republican nomination for governor. While the Republican nominee is strongly favored to win in November, a recent poll shows a large lead for Miller’s primary opponent. No woman has previously served as governor of North Dakota.